I think this piece by Andrew Sullivan on Sarah Palin's chance of running and her prospects should she do so, is worth reading. He accuses the media of being far too complacent on the topic of Palin and the de-evolution of politics—but in classic Sully style, he counters by being in my opinion, too alarmist. I think the truth lies somewhere in between: she's too dangerous to ignore, but too extreme to emerge victorious.
For now.
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but too extreme to emerge victorious
Can't agree here. I've come to believe that nothing in American politics is too absurd or too unfair to actually happen. Palin has the 30% of America with its knuckles on the ground. You really think, between the Noise Machine, a lazy mainstream press, and a population that's short on information and attention span, that an additional 20% couldn't be talked into her?
Well...that's why I hedged a bit at the end. If there were an election today, I'm not sure she'd "show", never mind win or place. But a lot can happen in two years.
I think it's much harder to predict with Palin than it was with Obama. I saw his potential and talent and thought it would translate...I had my Sully moment with Palin right off the bat, but as good as she is at riling up that 20-30 percent, I'm not sure she has the skill, knowledge or appeal to get close to 50. She's preaching to the same choir that was at that 2008 Convention.
Now, she HAS successfully cowed many members of the GOP establishment and they are afraid to challenge her, but that will not be the case as other candidates enter the field against her.
For her to make the kind of gain needed beyond the GOP base, fortunes have to be very bad for Obama and the Democrats.
I don't think she can fool enough of the people long enough over the course of a longer campaign.
But, as I said, I HOPE I am right. I have very little faith in the people in this country to make the right choice and even less faith in the Democrats to make the choice clear.
I think some of it depends on what you so accurately referred to as "the supine press". If they amp up the fire against Obama, they may find themselves with a Palin presidency the next time around. The election of Palin has less to do with Palin, unfortunately, and more to do with the press machine that ultimately spins up behind her. She makes me nervous.
On the other hand, she is the Republican party's broken glass candidate--their Hillary Clinton, as much as I hate that comparison--and I would hope that enough independents and young people would be frightened of her stance on social issues to hit the voting booths in force.
She's running. There's no way she's not running.
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