Tuesday, November 03, 2009

All Politics is Still Local

Tomorrow morning pundits of all stripes—from the right wing blowhards on FOX and AM radio to the "balanced" teams of analysts on CNN, etc—will look at the results of today's election results and try desperately to divine some message about how the country thinks about President Obama and the Democrats in Congress.

As if the specific issues facing a single state and the governor they choose is directly tied to how strongly Obama or some Senator from another state across the country support a public option...or a rural upstate New York district's choice of Congressman means Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin will be the next Administration.

It's bullshit. No matter which side is spinning. The reality is that this will prove to be a classic case of "all politics is local," and that's really all it means.

Here's MY take on three of the races Nate Silver considers worth following...

New Jersey Governor -- The incumbent Democrat is a Goldman Sachs bazillionaire—he's probably lucky not to be hanging from a lamppost. That fact alone might doom any candidate these days, but Corzine must be a pretty shitty governor to get thumped by the man who seems poised to win: Chris Christie is a GOP thug with a history of abusing the power of his office and crippling people by driving his car the wrong way down the street. All this tells me is people in New Jersey get what they deserve for always electing corrupt assholes.

Virginia Governor -- It's close to Washington D.C.? Is that why it means something? Every time some jerkoff in the media tells you that McDonnel the Republican won by XX percent, remember that the state's residents still support Obama even more. And also remember that McConnell never identifies himself as a Republican in his ads or on his homepage.

The never-before-heard-of New York 23rd Congressional District -- Sarah Palin and her Dick Armey kneecapped the Republican candidate and pushed a teabagger Independent ("Conservative" party) candidate on voters. The actual Republican then endorsed the Democrat—which, of course, FOX misreported as endorsing the Conservative. Either way, it's academic—this seat hasn't been filled by a Democrat for over a hundred and fifty years.

Don't worry, everyone from Chris Matthews to Joe Lieberman will tell you that for some reason the fact that the GOP is eating their own in the deepest red districts, should somehow worry liberal Democrats 1,200 miles away? This result means nothing about the national mood. After next week you'll never here from this place again.

UPDATE: The Democrat appears to have actually won NY-23!!

Am I suddenly going to flip and declare this an endorsement of Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank? No. All this means is rural, small-c conservative New Yorkers didn't appreciate a bunch of assholes from Alaska and Texas telling them they aren't pure-enough Republicans.

On the plus side, it makes Sarah Palin look even more stupid—no easy task. It also underscores the fact that no matter how much hype surrounds her as a GOP savior—when people actually step into the voting booth and draw the curtain, even in a Republican stronghold, they fucking flee. Even better? Palin and the national party still won't get it.

7 comments:

Bob said...

"Am I suddenly going to flip and declare this an endorsement of Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank? No."

But its tempting.

Seriously, you are totally right. The poor candidates lost. In NY, the conservatives threw it to the Dem. Dumbasses.

Bob said...

I like this line at politico:

"Chris Christie defeats Jon Corzine, becoming the first Republican to win statewide in more than a decade. "

Wow, a decade? You mean 2.5 terms? As if that's a long time when a term is 4 years. Do some math morons.

steves said...

Yeah, I will never figure out New Jersey. The fact that some assbag like Lautenberg can win there tells me all that I need to know.

Every time some jerkoff in the media tells you that McDonnel the Republican won by XX percent, remember that the state's residents still support Obama even more. And also remember that McConnell never identifies himself as a Republican in his ads or on his homepage.

What I am hearing from people I know in Virginia makes it hard to agree with you. McDonnell won a majority of independents who had flocked to Obama in the election. He has also been in the legislature and was the AG, so despite the lack of a GOP tag, I am sure voters know what he is. Articles say he downplayed the social issues, but if you look at his past positions, it is clear that he is a big time social conservative.

I don't live in Virginia, so I don't really have a feel for what the voters on that state are like. My guess is that they are as fickle and impatient as anywhere else. In terms of history, incumbents and the party in power have a tough time in elections when the economy is in the crapper.

Mr Furious said...

Gotta love this AP story at the top of my Yahoo homepage:

GOP sweep: Big governor victories in Virginia, NJ (AP)

WASHINGTON – Independents who swept Barack Obama to a historic 2008 victory broke big for Republicans on Tuesday as the GOP wrested political control from Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey, a troubling sign for the president and his party heading into an important midterm election year.


Then, two paragraphs later...

And Democrat Bill Owens captured a GOP-held vacant 23rd Congressional District seat in New York in a race that highlighted fissures in the Republican Party and illustrated hurdles the GOP could face in capitalizing on any voter discontent with Obama and Democrats next fall.

Gotta love that kind of cognitive dissonance masquerading as political analysis.

Mr Furious said...

A commenter at Balloon Juice last night summed up the impending coverage and right-wing spin perfectly:

"Winning two local governor races = good news for potential future congressional races, losing two actual congressional races = irrelevant."

Smitty said...

Winning two local governor races = good news for potential future congressional races, losing two actual congressional races = irrelevant.

Perfectly stated. There is nothing else to add.

The fucking ass-hat Juan Williams bloviated this morning on NPR (will they FIRE that guy??? Jesus...), during the segment where they asked him about the Conservative loss in NY-23, that this anger, this grassroots activism that really drove people to the polls was exciting to see. Renee Montagne had to remind him, on the air, that um, they lost in that case, so gee Juan, not so much, huh?

Losing = Good for Republicans!

Winning = Good for Republicans!

The Other Susan said...

I live in Troy, NeW York, and I actually heard Doug Hoffman's radio ads. They made him sound like a crazy conservative (pro-life, anti-bailout, anti-health care reform, used everything but the n-word to disassociate himself from Obama)--and as conservative as upstate NY is, I don't think they want to lose their government provided prison jobs. The economy upstate is really bad, as it was before the recession--I'm guessing a public health care option might sound pretty good to some of those voters right now.

When I first heard it, I thought the ad was a parody--this is New York state, not the Bible Belt! But they weren't kidding....