Sunday, January 27, 2008

A Turn of the Tide?

Barack Obama won the primary in South Carolina Saturday, and did it in overwhelming, ass-kicking, resounding, empty-the-bench-for-garbage-time fashion. Obama doubled up Hillary 55 to 27 percent, with John Edwards finishing a distant third. Edwards is now effectively out of the running—this was his last stand. He will fight on, but he will have to rethink his strategy and goals, and after the last-minute robo-calls against him from Clinton, trust that he won't be coming to her defense in January 31's debate. His decision now is when it makes sense to pass his support over to Obama.

The Clintons pulled out all the stops and this result might demonstrate a backlash against their tactics. One of two things will happen as a result: They we redouble their efforts and get even nastier because they are more desperate, OR Bill Clinton will find himself campaigning in Alaska—or wherever the cameras ain't.

Is suspect the Clinton camp was ready to spin a narrow loss as a result of heavy black turnout in Obama's favor—which happened—but he beat them 8 to 1 among those voters. and he pounded the competition the younger the voters got...
For all the recent speculation about race and gender, here’s a tip about the real divide: age.

Among voters 18-24, Obama beat Clinton, 66% to 25% (a 41-point gap).
Among voters 25-29, Obama beat Clinton, 70% to 21% (a 49-point gap).
Among voters 30-39, Obama beat Clinton, 62% to 23% (a 39-point gap).
Among voters 40-49, Obama beat Clinton, 61% to 25% (a 36-point gap).
Among voters 50-64, Obama beat Clinton, 51% to 26% (a 25-point gap).

Oh, what about the race and gender?
* 61% of the voters were women, and Obama beat Clinton among women 53% to 30%.

* Obama did extremely well among African-American voters, but he also easily defeated his rivals among non-blacks under the age of 30 — 52% for Obama, 28% for Clinton, 20% for Edwards.

In heavily Republican South Carolina, Barack Obama alone drew more votes than the top two Republicans (McCain and Huckabee) combined.

Looking more and more like a viable candidate with a 50-state strategy available to him—something no other candidate can claim.

UPDATE: Go review these numbers at CNN. The only category Hillary won was whites over 65. You know, the old guard. Edwards won whites between 30 and 64, but Obama beat both of 'em combined among whites 29 and under. Are young Southerners turning the page on race?

Here's the victory speech.

This might really happen.


Toast said...

I'm just happy the race is still on. February 5th, baby. My vote might actually matter!

Deb said...

Are you implying that Giuliani doesn't have a 50-state strategy?

Mr Furious said...

At this point, I'm not sure Guiliani has a 50-vote strategy.