Right now, our trusty little model of Massachusetts gives Martha Coakley just a 25 percent chance of prevailing tomorrow. Intrade also puts her odds at about 1 in 4. My subjective assessment might be a little better than that, but not much.
People are acting, however, as though 25 percent is the same as zero percent. And -- as disappointing as it might be to be in this position -- obviously it is not. This is not some basketball game where the score suddenly became Brown 75, Coakley 25; a 25 percent chance of winning means, quite literally, 25 percent.
Sorry, Nate. One-in-four, quite literally, is fucking screwed. Way to botch this up Democrats. And I honestly think parachuting Obama in to campaign on the eve of the election was a mistake. No voters like being told what to do by outsiders, and I think it played right into Brown's fake-ass regular guy versus machine politician.
4 comments:
Once again Mr. Furious and I are in a Vulcan-blogger-mind-meld. See our post at aroundthekeg.com
I disagree with you on the Obama approach. Keep in mind, Obama's job wasn't to persuade anyone, he was there to turnout Democrats who are lazy voters. In a liberal state like Massachusetts, all it normally takes is Democratic turnout to win.
I hope you're right.
Yes, Obama wasn't going to swing Brown voters/leaners, but he might drive turnout from the right as well.
This shouldn't have even been close.
And as for Coakley? The more I read about what a shitty candidate she is, and even shittier person, there'll be some consolation in her losing I suppose.
Her behavior as D.A. was indefensible, and even I would have an extremely hard time voting for her—I'd do it since there's so much at stake, but I'd hate myslef for it, and I'd work my ass off to blow up the people responsible. Shame on the party in Massachusetts for putting voters in the position to choose between and empty suit like Brown and a disgrace like Coakley.
Shame on the party in Massachusetts for putting voters in the position to choose between and empty suit like Brown and a disgrace like Coakley.
Except she beat more that 2 other primary candidates for the gig, so it is the voters fault again.
True enough. I forgot they wedged a primary in there.
I'm still bent about the whole process regarding this seat. The Democrats got cute TWICE with the laws regarding replacing a Senator, and it contributed to the clusterfuck we're now facing.
But, yes, if health care reform goes down we can thank not the voters in Texas or Alabama—but Connecticut and Massachusetts. With a big fucking assist from the the nihilists at the far left.
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