Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Nailbiter

I am shitting my pants today like it's actually Election Day...and this is why:
Ohio, Texas could decide Democratic race

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent 54 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton contested primaries in Ohio, Texas and two other states on Tuesday, the front-runner and his pursuer in a riveting race for the Democratic presidential nomination. John McCain reached out for the Republican delegates needed to secure his nomination after a decade's struggle.

In all there were 370 Democratic delegates at stake in Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio and Texas, which uses an unusual primary-caucus system.

After 11 straight victories, Obama had the momentum and the lead in the delegate chase in The Associated Press count, 1,386-1,276.

[...] That left Clinton in desperate need of a comeback with time running out — if it hadn't already.

Some of her supporters, her husband, the former president among them, said she needed to outpoll Obama in both Texas and Ohio to sustain her candidacy.

Without conceding anything, Obama's allies said even that wouldn't be enough, given his lead in the delegate count and party rules that virtually assure primary losers a significant share of the spoils.

It takes 2,025 delegates to win the Democratic nomination, and slightly more than 600 remained to be picked in the 10 states that vote after Tuesday.

It's not the math that worries me, it's the stupid fucking media. Expectations and pressure have been unfairly raised for Obama, and the headline above is a perfect example. A knockout by Obama is not likely, and Hillary needs to win like 60-40 the rest of the way to catch Obama—and that's simply not going to happen barring some unforeseen event. But narrow victories or split results today allow Hillary to effectively declare resounding comeback status and climb back into a race she really still has little chance of winning fairly/cleanly.

Anyway, the reason I'm getting an ulcer over this is simple—Obama's my guy, and over the last couple days, HRC has released a barrage of attacks and they seem to have had an impact. A week ago, I felt pretty comfortable with today—not that Obama was a lock to win, but that expectations all around were more tempered, and that he could win Texas, and perhaps even Ohio.

Now that seems to be in some doubt, and the media has shifted the pressure from Hillary to save her campaign to Obama needing to seal the deal today.

Anyway, this is so nerve-wracking for me because I don't want Hillary to be rewarded for her tactics, and I will have a really hard time stomaching her as the nominee should that somehow come about. That wasn't true a month ago, but since then Hillary "found her voice" and it turned out to be Republican.

6 comments:

konagod said...

I voted.... for Obama. Didn't flinch, didn't waste a second in doing so. I tore out the endorsements page from the Austin Chronicle before heading out without even looking at it because I needed some guidance in the smaller races. I'd already checked the box for Obama and when I pulled the Chronicle endorsements out of my pocket and saw they endorsed him, I felt even better.

Toast said...

Good for you, Kona. You had me worried there for a bit. ;-)

Adam said...

Mister Furious--

You're 100% correct in saying that the media is crafting their own reality in reporting this race. The expectations game is one thing, but the media's sudden desire to look tough on Obama in response to Clinton playing victim (and also in reaction to the SNL skits of all things) is borderline negligent. I have zero faith in the media's integrity when it comes to this election. Not that there's a conspiracy taking place, but sometimes I wonder if they occupy the same planet as we do.

angie said...

Your worst nightmare has come true. FUCK! We are very sad across the street. It's going to be a long 3 months...Though it means we could have a do-over here.

Deb said...

Rolaids. I swear even reading your post made me want to buy them in bulk.

I nearly had a fit this morning when I saw the headlines. I can practically HEAR the Republicans cheering about McCain becoming the next president if Clinton gets the nod.

It isn't over 'til it's over. It isn't over 'til it's over. It isn't over 'til it's over. It isn't over 'til it's over. It isn't over 'til it's over. It isn't over 'til it's over. It...

Red State Blues said...

It's a depressing morning. Fer sher.