GTFOTV

Nate Silver, the polling/election analyst hero of 2008, gives 5 reasons that Democrats might defy predictions and hold on to the House. Of course, he's also the guy predicting a 53-seat GOP gain, with a possibility of 70-80 seats. So, take all of it with a grain of salt.

In short, none of these fucking guys know what the hell they are talking about. We'll know tomorrow how right (or wrong) they all are.

Personally, I think there's no way the polls accurately portray the mood of the country, and that Democrats are likely to outperform expectations. However, I think they still lose the House and hold the Senate with only a few seats to spare.

Specific predictions? Reid barely wins. O'Donnell loses big. Brown and Boxer win. And, finally, Russ Feingold squeaks by.

But get ready for the House Energy Committee chaired by Joe "I'm Sorry, B.P." Barton.

Dumbest. Electorate. Ever.

I'm Voting Republican...

This is excellent.

Disembowelment

One could argue that Jon Stewart drove a nail in the coffin of Crossfire, or that Stephen Colbert held a long-overdue, uncomfortable mirror up to Bush and the D.C. press corps at that dinner a couple years back...but both of those occurred in the relative obscurity of unanticipated improvisation. No one saw them coming.

This Jon Stewart vs. Jim Cramer/CNBC thing has been 8 days in the making and has gone far beyond YouTube viral stages. It was above-the-fold on USA Today yesterday—don't even ask me if that furthers the irony here or not.

Anyway, last night was the showdown, and from everything I've read it didn't disappoint. I saw a few minutes "live" last night, and a clip on line, but I won't be able to sit and watch the whole interview until later. But that doesn't mean you can't...

NOTE: Unedited and NSFW. Part One:

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Jim Cramer Unedited Interview Pt. 1

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

Part Two.
Part Three.

Lecture Hall

Paul Krugman is again a must-read. Obamaphiles still might not be happy with what the Professor is reciting, but he's right, and it needs to be said. And passed on...

• Obama blew it on the stimulus plan by empowering the Republicans, who just want to screw the country over in hopes of a comeback.

• This should be the perfect time to push universal health care.

• Obama's bank plan is (probably) also for shit.

UPDATE: You want a lecture? I'm giving one in the comments...

Panic in Detroit

Do I understand the financial markets or the economy? No. But I do understand that Wall Street has been promised over $700 billion, half of which has already been handed out with no oversight and no disclosure of who is getting the cash. AIG alone has walked up to the bail-out window to the tune of $150 billion in three months.

So it seems to me giving the automakers $25 billion—less than three percent—of that same bailout money to preserve millions of real, living wage manufacturing jobs and to help prop up an industry that actually makes a product—as opposed to one that shifts hypothetical credit defaults and bad loans around—doesn't seem so outrageous to me. Add to that the fact that this loan can be conditioned on The Big Three implementing some changes that will benefit the environment as well? It looks like fucking bargain by comparison.

Will the failure to deliver this money actually result in one or more of these dinosaurs going down? I don't know. But as someone who lived the last seven years in southeastern Michigan, I can tell you with certainty and seriousness that if one of them does, it will be akin to dropping a nuclear bomb on that area—everything from mid-Ohio north will be wiped out.

(NOTE: I have links to throw in there for a lot of that stuff, but I don't have time for that shit now...I'm at work after all...)