GTFOTV

Nate Silver, the polling/election analyst hero of 2008, gives 5 reasons that Democrats might defy predictions and hold on to the House. Of course, he's also the guy predicting a 53-seat GOP gain, with a possibility of 70-80 seats. So, take all of it with a grain of salt.

In short, none of these fucking guys know what the hell they are talking about. We'll know tomorrow how right (or wrong) they all are.

Personally, I think there's no way the polls accurately portray the mood of the country, and that Democrats are likely to outperform expectations. However, I think they still lose the House and hold the Senate with only a few seats to spare.

Specific predictions? Reid barely wins. O'Donnell loses big. Brown and Boxer win. And, finally, Russ Feingold squeaks by.

But get ready for the House Energy Committee chaired by Joe "I'm Sorry, B.P." Barton.

Dumbest. Electorate. Ever.

Galloping to a Lead

I don't remember the numbers, but on the radio I heard Gallop had Obama opening up big leads in the "key" swing states...something along the lines of an 8-point lead in Ohio and Florida and 15 in PA. That's big news because they are key electoral states, but also areas he was supposed to struggle.

As evidenced by those swings, a lot can change in a short amount of time, but I see this looking increasingly difficult for McCain to stage a comeback on his own. He has damaged his own image severely over the last couple weeks, and I don't think Palin is going to do anything to help his cause...