Nate Silver, the polling/election analyst hero of 2008, gives 5 reasons that Democrats might defy predictions and hold on to the House. Of course, he's also the guy predicting a 53-seat GOP gain, with a possibility of 70-80 seats. So, take all of it with a grain of salt.
In short, none of these fucking guys know what the hell they are talking about. We'll know tomorrow how right (or wrong) they all are.
Personally, I think there's no way the polls accurately portray the mood of the country, and that Democrats are likely to outperform expectations. However, I think they still lose the House and hold the Senate with only a few seats to spare.
Specific predictions? Reid barely wins. O'Donnell loses big. Brown and Boxer win. And, finally, Russ Feingold squeaks by.
But get ready for the House Energy Committee chaired by Joe "I'm Sorry, B.P." Barton.
Dumbest. Electorate. Ever.
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label election. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Sunday, October 03, 2010
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Voice of Reason
I took a stroll over to Daniel Larison's site this evening. I am glad I did.
For most of the past year, Larison's focus has been on matters of foreign policy—something I find mostly uninteresting. But tonight his front page is centered mainly on the events of this week, and he put together the most calm, rational and, in my estimation the most accurate assessment of the situation going into the special election, the aftermath, and what can/should happen next.
The best part? Remember my complaint about no one is discussing the fact that Massachusetts already has universal health care, or connecting it to the vote? Larison does. Repeatedly.
Yes, Larison is small-"c" conservative. But he's no idealogue. And he is also, in my opinion, one of the sharpest political observers around, and maintains an impressive degree of neutrality to party and politics that, in this day and age, is pretty fucking amazing. His posts are sprinkled with his opinion on matters, not partisan talking points, but what he believes. Some highlights [emphasis and snark, mine]:
On Hardball: Chris Matthews vs Howard Dean:
We’ve Got Ours, You Can’t Have Yours
The disillusioned among us would do well to digest that post (and the comments) in its entirety. And I wish every chickenshit Democrat in Congress whould have it read to them repeatedly as they sleep. Those two posts go a long way to shift some of my blame and anger towards the voters in Massachusetts to the feckless pussies in the state party and D.C.
Learning The Wrong Lessons
Caught in the Loop
It appears Larison may turn out wrong at the end there, because—smart bet or not—the Democrats are about to take their straight flush and fold because the GOP is bluffing with a pair of fives. But his logic is impeccable. I should also point out that 'graph is like the toy surprise inside a post that's otherwise a vivisection of David Brooks. Good times.
That's all for now. If you're like me, that is a refreshing and bracing read. I would feel completely rejuvenated if I could have hope Larison's predictions would come true—I think he's right from top to bottom. If more Democrats and voters could think like this we'd be home free. Unfortunately, we legislate with the worthless Democrats we have, not the Democrats we WISH we had.
For most of the past year, Larison's focus has been on matters of foreign policy—something I find mostly uninteresting. But tonight his front page is centered mainly on the events of this week, and he put together the most calm, rational and, in my estimation the most accurate assessment of the situation going into the special election, the aftermath, and what can/should happen next.
The best part? Remember my complaint about no one is discussing the fact that Massachusetts already has universal health care, or connecting it to the vote? Larison does. Repeatedly.
Yes, Larison is small-"c" conservative. But he's no idealogue. And he is also, in my opinion, one of the sharpest political observers around, and maintains an impressive degree of neutrality to party and politics that, in this day and age, is pretty fucking amazing. His posts are sprinkled with his opinion on matters, not partisan talking points, but what he believes. Some highlights [emphasis and snark, mine]:
On Hardball: Chris Matthews vs Howard Dean:
The damning thing about this segment for Matthews is that he did not even attempt to consider the evidence being presented [a shocker, I know. —Mr. F]. All that he needed to know was that Brown won, Brown opposes this particular health care bill, and therefore it is obviously an endorsement of policy views on the national level that even Scott Brown doesn’t hold. The conventional wisdom has already become entrenched that Massachusetts independent voters recoiled from “statism” or “big government,” when the survey data indicate that the independent voters who backed both Obama and Brown expected much more from Obama than the shabby corporatist compromise in the Senate, and they were angry enough about his underwhelming performance to go so far as to elect a Republican to demonstrate the depth of their dissatisfaction. As Matthews’ and Bevan’s reactions show, their protest message is one that virtually no one is going to hear or understand.
We’ve Got Ours, You Can’t Have Yours
As I suggested yesterday, Brown’s opposition to the current Senate health care bill is a product of “I’ve got mine” sentiment: Massachusetts has its own health care plan, so there’s no need to tamper with it at the federal level. Chait poses a reasonable question when he asks, “So why should the rest of the country feel bound to heed this decision?” The answer many Republicans prefer to give is that the voters have spoken and it has been “proven” that health care legislation is unpopular and politically toxic, but this claim doesn’t actually hold up very well. [Democrats, please pay attention, here] If Massachusetts voters’ disapproval of federal health care legislation is driven in large part by satisfaction with MassCare, which is what Brown’s win would suggest, this is obviously an argument in favor of passing a health care bill in order to win the kind of popularity that MassCare already has. The very “parochial” defense Brown has mounted drives home that most Massachusetts voters apparently like universal or near-universal health insurance coverage mandated by government, which is not really a “wake-up call” telling Democrats that the public will destroy them if they pass a health care bill. The experience of at least the last forty-five years tells us that the public tends to like specific government programs and never wants to reduce or eliminate them [...]
Whether this federal health care legislation or MassCare is good public policy is a different question. Obviously, I think they aren’t because they are unsustainable and unaffordable, but that isn’t my point here. The core of the Republican argument right now is that most people don’t like the health care bill, Brown’s election shows this, and therefore Democrats should give up. [...] It is understandable why they would say this, because we all know that the measures instituted by federal health care legislation will rapidly become popular and politically untouchable.
The disillusioned among us would do well to digest that post (and the comments) in its entirety. And I wish every chickenshit Democrat in Congress whould have it read to them repeatedly as they sleep. Those two posts go a long way to shift some of my blame and anger towards the voters in Massachusetts to the feckless pussies in the state party and D.C.
Learning The Wrong Lessons
Tedisco [NY-20], Hoffman [NY-23] and Coakley have something important in common: all of them had every advantage in terms of party registration, funding and and voting patterns, and they squandered all of these. As a result, two solidly Republican districts are now represented by Democrats (Owens and Murphy) and one of the most politically liberal states in the country will have a Republican Senator. There is a pattern, but it is not one that fits self-congratulatory narratives from either party. Parties and candidates that exhibit feelings of entitlement and/or disdain for the voters, the places they live and the issues that actually matter to them will be voted down regardless of how those electorates voted in the past.
Caught in the Loop
Democrats have convinced themselves for years that the public overwhelmingly favors “health care reform,” which they pretty readily identify with their own ideas on what that reform should be, and now Republicans have convinced themselves that the public will not stand for passage of a health care bill. My guess is that both have been wrong in different ways, but the GOP is probably misreading the situation even worse than the Democrats. Republicans are betting heavily that a bill that is passed this year but which will not take effect for several more years is going to precipitate a massive public backlash in their favor. Democrats are assuming that the voters who handed them 14 Senate and 50+ House seats over the last two elections are not going to throw them out of power for doing more or less what they said they would do. Whose bet seems smarter? [Note: This was written before the election results were known]
It appears Larison may turn out wrong at the end there, because—smart bet or not—the Democrats are about to take their straight flush and fold because the GOP is bluffing with a pair of fives. But his logic is impeccable. I should also point out that 'graph is like the toy surprise inside a post that's otherwise a vivisection of David Brooks. Good times.
That's all for now. If you're like me, that is a refreshing and bracing read. I would feel completely rejuvenated if I could have hope Larison's predictions would come true—I think he's right from top to bottom. If more Democrats and voters could think like this we'd be home free. Unfortunately, we legislate with the worthless Democrats we have, not the Democrats we WISH we had.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
All Politics is Still Local
Tomorrow morning pundits of all stripes—from the right wing blowhards on FOX and AM radio to the "balanced" teams of analysts on CNN, etc—will look at the results of today's election results and try desperately to divine some message about how the country thinks about President Obama and the Democrats in Congress.
As if the specific issues facing a single state and the governor they choose is directly tied to how strongly Obama or some Senator from another state across the country support a public option...or a rural upstate New York district's choice of Congressman means Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin will be the next Administration.
It's bullshit. No matter which side is spinning. The reality is that this will prove to be a classic case of "all politics is local," and that's really all it means.
Here's MY take on three of the races Nate Silver considers worth following...
New Jersey Governor -- The incumbent Democrat is a Goldman Sachs bazillionaire—he's probably lucky not to be hanging from a lamppost. That fact alone might doom any candidate these days, but Corzine must be a pretty shitty governor to get thumped by the man who seems poised to win: Chris Christie is a GOP thug with a history of abusing the power of his office and crippling people by driving his car the wrong way down the street. All this tells me is people in New Jersey get what they deserve for always electing corrupt assholes.
Virginia Governor -- It's close to Washington D.C.? Is that why it means something? Every time some jerkoff in the media tells you that McDonnel the Republican won by XX percent, remember that the state's residents still support Obama even more. And also remember that McConnell never identifies himself as a Republican in his ads or on his homepage.
The never-before-heard-of New York 23rd Congressional District -- Sarah Palin and her Dick Armey kneecapped the Republican candidate and pushed a teabagger Independent ("Conservative" party) candidate on voters. The actual Republican then endorsed the Democrat—which, of course, FOX misreported as endorsing the Conservative. Either way, it's academic—this seat hasn't been filled by a Democrat for over a hundred and fifty years.
Don't worry, everyone from Chris Matthews to Joe Lieberman will tell you that for some reason the fact that the GOP is eating their own in the deepest red districts, should somehow worry liberal Democrats 1,200 miles away? This result means nothing about the national mood. After next week you'll never here from this place again.
UPDATE: The Democrat appears to have actually won NY-23!!
Am I suddenly going to flip and declare this an endorsement of Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank? No. All this means is rural, small-c conservative New Yorkers didn't appreciate a bunch of assholes from Alaska and Texas telling them they aren't pure-enough Republicans.
On the plus side, it makes Sarah Palin look even more stupid—no easy task. It also underscores the fact that no matter how much hype surrounds her as a GOP savior—when people actually step into the voting booth and draw the curtain, even in a Republican stronghold, they fucking flee. Even better? Palin and the national party still won't get it.
As if the specific issues facing a single state and the governor they choose is directly tied to how strongly Obama or some Senator from another state across the country support a public option...or a rural upstate New York district's choice of Congressman means Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin will be the next Administration.
It's bullshit. No matter which side is spinning. The reality is that this will prove to be a classic case of "all politics is local," and that's really all it means.
Here's MY take on three of the races Nate Silver considers worth following...
New Jersey Governor -- The incumbent Democrat is a Goldman Sachs bazillionaire—he's probably lucky not to be hanging from a lamppost. That fact alone might doom any candidate these days, but Corzine must be a pretty shitty governor to get thumped by the man who seems poised to win: Chris Christie is a GOP thug with a history of abusing the power of his office and crippling people by driving his car the wrong way down the street. All this tells me is people in New Jersey get what they deserve for always electing corrupt assholes.
Virginia Governor -- It's close to Washington D.C.? Is that why it means something? Every time some jerkoff in the media tells you that McDonnel the Republican won by XX percent, remember that the state's residents still support Obama even more. And also remember that McConnell never identifies himself as a Republican in his ads or on his homepage.
The never-before-heard-of New York 23rd Congressional District -- Sarah Palin and her Dick Armey kneecapped the Republican candidate and pushed a teabagger Independent ("Conservative" party) candidate on voters. The actual Republican then endorsed the Democrat—which, of course, FOX misreported as endorsing the Conservative. Either way, it's academic—this seat hasn't been filled by a Democrat for over a hundred and fifty years.
Don't worry, everyone from Chris Matthews to Joe Lieberman will tell you that for some reason the fact that the GOP is eating their own in the deepest red districts, should somehow worry liberal Democrats 1,200 miles away? This result means nothing about the national mood. After next week you'll never here from this place again.
UPDATE: The Democrat appears to have actually won NY-23!!
Am I suddenly going to flip and declare this an endorsement of Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank? No. All this means is rural, small-c conservative New Yorkers didn't appreciate a bunch of assholes from Alaska and Texas telling them they aren't pure-enough Republicans.
On the plus side, it makes Sarah Palin look even more stupid—no easy task. It also underscores the fact that no matter how much hype surrounds her as a GOP savior—when people actually step into the voting booth and draw the curtain, even in a Republican stronghold, they fucking flee. Even better? Palin and the national party still won't get it.
Friday, June 26, 2009
In Case You Forgot…
Al Franken won an election and should be a U.S. Senator, but is still yet to be sworn in...
I know Norm Coleman thinks if he pushes long enough some Circuit Court on Mars might rule in his favor and force a new race, but after being a fucking sore loser for nine months and keeping his state from having representation does he really think he'd actually do better the next time 'round?
Asshole.
I know Norm Coleman thinks if he pushes long enough some Circuit Court on Mars might rule in his favor and force a new race, but after being a fucking sore loser for nine months and keeping his state from having representation does he really think he'd actually do better the next time 'round?
Asshole.
Monday, December 01, 2008
Wrong
Nobody wants Al Franken to boot Norm Coleman's ass out of Paul Wellstone's Senate seat more than me, but if Reid and the Senate pick the winner, I won't be pleased. At all.
I'd rather Coleman win, than Franken get the seat under shady circumstances.
If the Senate can bring pressure to make sure all the necessary votes are counted, that's fine, but it needs to be totally and completely above board, and the results respected.
In related news, Joe Biden's seat is going to his former Chief of Staff, who will hold it until a special election in which he vows not to run. This is good because I can think of no one who could better continue the decisions of the man the people of Delaware elected to the Senate than his long-time CoS. And democracy-wise, this is far preferable to the much-rumored appointment of Biden's son, Beau. I've little patience for nepotism—and even less among good guys.
I'd rather Coleman win, than Franken get the seat under shady circumstances.
If the Senate can bring pressure to make sure all the necessary votes are counted, that's fine, but it needs to be totally and completely above board, and the results respected.
In related news, Joe Biden's seat is going to his former Chief of Staff, who will hold it until a special election in which he vows not to run. This is good because I can think of no one who could better continue the decisions of the man the people of Delaware elected to the Senate than his long-time CoS. And democracy-wise, this is far preferable to the much-rumored appointment of Biden's son, Beau. I've little patience for nepotism—and even less among good guys.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Take Care of Business
I've been meaning to post that pic for a while, and today's the day. The man has run the most disciplined, organized and successful campaign in history. He did his part. So well in fact, that my biggest worry now is complacency... Now it's on us.
Vote. And make sure everyone you know votes. You have a sister in San Diego? Even better—Vegas? Phoenix? Make sure they vote no matter what the hell the morons on tv are saying about the race—every vote counts—if not towards actual victory, than towards an ass-whipping mandate.
I'll be trying to get out of work early today to go down to the Obama office to do whatever the hell they need me to.
You need some more motivation? Fine.
No fucking steak knives today:
Go and do likewise, gents.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Miscellany
GUYS WHO WEAR $14,000 WATCHES WEIGH IN
A good endorsement of Obama column from the editors of Esquire. They are justifiably critical, even harsh, regarding certain aspects of Obama's candidacy (ie: kissing the ring of Rick Warren). But they assemble a devastating indictment of the Bush Era and McCain's complete capitulation to, and eventual bear-hug of, the theocratic wing. Concluding with a compelling case regarding not just the Supreme Court—but ALL the Federal Courts. It's a column that's worth reading...
SPENCE SPEWS
Patton Oswald on the election, the candidates and what a good Ellroy novel it would make...
BLOGROLL UPDATE—IN:
SHAKESVILLE Now with 50% less PUMA! Still annoying (infuriating?) at times, but a near-daily stop for me with plenty of good stuff, or at least good debate.
DANIEL LARISON Heads up, that link takes you to The American Conservative—John Cole and Sullivan link to this guy often, and he's good. Perhaps less pertinent after the election—but, then again, important to keep things honest.
BLOGROLL UPDATE—OUT:
POSITIVE APE INDEX Site of the artist Coop. Infrequent posting, and too little art, design and hot rods in favor of too much wierd biker chick nudity (Angelos alert)
NEIL GAIMAN'S JOURNAL Seemed cool at first...I never go back there
Esquire Endorses Barack Obama for President
We thought this election would be a serious fight over the future of this country, but only one candidate showed up.
A good endorsement of Obama column from the editors of Esquire. They are justifiably critical, even harsh, regarding certain aspects of Obama's candidacy (ie: kissing the ring of Rick Warren). But they assemble a devastating indictment of the Bush Era and McCain's complete capitulation to, and eventual bear-hug of, the theocratic wing. Concluding with a compelling case regarding not just the Supreme Court—but ALL the Federal Courts. It's a column that's worth reading...
SPENCE SPEWS
Patton Oswald on the election, the candidates and what a good Ellroy novel it would make...
BLOGROLL UPDATE—IN:
SHAKESVILLE Now with 50% less PUMA! Still annoying (infuriating?) at times, but a near-daily stop for me with plenty of good stuff, or at least good debate.
DANIEL LARISON Heads up, that link takes you to The American Conservative—John Cole and Sullivan link to this guy often, and he's good. Perhaps less pertinent after the election—but, then again, important to keep things honest.
BLOGROLL UPDATE—OUT:
POSITIVE APE INDEX Site of the artist Coop. Infrequent posting, and too little art, design and hot rods in favor of too much wierd biker chick nudity (Angelos alert)
NEIL GAIMAN'S JOURNAL Seemed cool at first...I never go back there
Friday, October 24, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Linkdump [continually updated]
BACK TO THE FUTURE
Ron Howard's Obama video at FunnyOrDie.
CONVENTIONAL “WISDOM”
Salon.com lists the seven biggest things the political punditry called wrong...I'm not even sure that list gets it right, but I can say I got all but one right (I had a brief period—measured in hours—of panic about Palin), but I was spot-on with 4,5 and 6—and, more importantly, so was Obama.
LESS AGITATING
In an OpEd that appeared at reason.com and FOXNews.com, Radley Balko makes the libertarian case for Obama. Good stuff, and I don't even take issue with his reservations about Obama. Forward to any center-right or true conservative you know.
EPIC PFAIL
Chris Matthews—perhaps making up for lost time and lack of effort—relentlessly pummels a McCain spokesperson on Palin's misunderstanding of the job of VP.
IRRELEVANT
I wouldn't give a shit what al-Qaeda had to say about President Barack Obama, or the price of figs—so I don't really care about this supposed "endorsement" of McCain, and bloggers who waste more pixels on it than I just did are being jackasses.
WHERE'S THE FIRE?
Unbelievable video from a red-light camera in St. Louis...
Nobody was seriously hurt, which seems almost impossible. But, I have to ask...how the hell did that happen? Were they going to two different fires or what? BTW, that could never happen in Asheville as both trucks would be hemmed in by a bunch of Outback-driving stoners.
Ron Howard's Obama video at FunnyOrDie.
CONVENTIONAL “WISDOM”
Salon.com lists the seven biggest things the political punditry called wrong...I'm not even sure that list gets it right, but I can say I got all but one right (I had a brief period—measured in hours—of panic about Palin), but I was spot-on with 4,5 and 6—and, more importantly, so was Obama.
LESS AGITATING
In an OpEd that appeared at reason.com and FOXNews.com, Radley Balko makes the libertarian case for Obama. Good stuff, and I don't even take issue with his reservations about Obama. Forward to any center-right or true conservative you know.
EPIC PFAIL
Chris Matthews—perhaps making up for lost time and lack of effort—relentlessly pummels a McCain spokesperson on Palin's misunderstanding of the job of VP.
IRRELEVANT
I wouldn't give a shit what al-Qaeda had to say about President Barack Obama, or the price of figs—so I don't really care about this supposed "endorsement" of McCain, and bloggers who waste more pixels on it than I just did are being jackasses.
WHERE'S THE FIRE?
Unbelievable video from a red-light camera in St. Louis...
Nobody was seriously hurt, which seems almost impossible. But, I have to ask...how the hell did that happen? Were they going to two different fires or what? BTW, that could never happen in Asheville as both trucks would be hemmed in by a bunch of Outback-driving stoners.
I Approve This Message
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Sweet Caroline -- UPDATED, AGAIN
So far, so good...
HOLY SHIT UPDATE: Well, THIS is not good news...
What fucking genius came up with that shit? (Answer: probably a Republican) I can only hope that this is pant-soiling news to me since I am new to North Carolina—the only reason I know about this is the Obama campaign sent a mailer to my house yesterday.
Here's my double-edged take on this: Hundreds of thousands of new voters have registered in NC—most of them Dems. Hopefully the fact that they are so motivated to cast a vote for Obama means that they zero right in on that choice and don't miss it. On the other hand, they are all first-time voters, so the likelihood of confusion or error with the ballot is high.
Fuck.
UPDATE 2— Double-fuck:
Smitty, Bob—hold each other.
UPDATE 3—BETTER NEWS: If that shit has you down, this should help...
[AP] NORTH CAROLINA
Early voting opened Thursday and drew some 214,000 voters to the polls in the first two days, leading to hours-long lines in parts of the state and lengthy schedules for poll workers.
In the first few days, the balloting clearly favored Democrats, with those registered with the party making up 62 percent of those who had voted. Only 22 percent of the voters had been registered Republicans.
North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.
HOLY SHIT UPDATE: Well, THIS is not good news...
NC is one of two states in the country where straight ticket voting does not count for President. This unusual exception trips up tens of thousands of voters every 4 years.
North Carolina lost 92,000 votes for President in 2004 due to straight ticket confusion. Our state has one of the highest undervote rates for President in the Country because of this.
Voters have very little reason to know about this exception, since it is not intuitive, and it was not even mentioned in the 3 million + voter guides mailed to households all over North Carolina.
What fucking genius came up with that shit? (Answer: probably a Republican) I can only hope that this is pant-soiling news to me since I am new to North Carolina—the only reason I know about this is the Obama campaign sent a mailer to my house yesterday.
Here's my double-edged take on this: Hundreds of thousands of new voters have registered in NC—most of them Dems. Hopefully the fact that they are so motivated to cast a vote for Obama means that they zero right in on that choice and don't miss it. On the other hand, they are all first-time voters, so the likelihood of confusion or error with the ballot is high.
Fuck.
UPDATE 2— Double-fuck:
My mother has been working the polls in North Carolina for early voting [...] she says that in the last few days alone, she has personally seen at least 200 votes intended to go to Obama that were not being counted (in other words, people telling her how excited they are to see Obama elected, only to find out that by selecting the straight democratic line, they never even cast a vote for him).
Smitty, Bob—hold each other.
UPDATE 3—BETTER NEWS: If that shit has you down, this should help...
I squeaked in just before the 7pm deadline to find two very frustrated poll workers and a line of a couple dozen people, due to problems with the computerized voting system not accepting people's driver's licenses. It was taking about 7-10 minutes per person just to get the computer to accept them as valid and to print out their ballot, causing very long delays.
For me the most moving moment came when the family in front of me, comprising probably 4 generations of voters (including an 18 year old girl voting for her first time and a 90-something hunched-over grandmother), got their turn to vote. When the old woman left the voting booth she made it about halfway to the door before collapsing in a nearby chair, where she began weeping uncontrollably. When we rushed over to help we realized that she wasn't in trouble at all but she had not truly believed, until she left the booth, that she would ever live long enough to cast a vote for an African-American for president. Anyone who doesn't think that African-American turnout will absolutely SHATTER every existing record is in for a very rude surprise.
There were about 20 people in front of me but remarkably not a single person left the room without voting over the 2 hours it took to get through the line.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
False Alarm
Boy? Did O'Reilly just call a black professor a "boy" on cable television?
Actually, Andrew? No. I don't think he did.
Bob Cesca also bites on this. Until someone shows me a video, I'm reading that "boy" as shorthand for "Boy, Oh Boy" or "Man..." etc.
If you guys could just wait another night, O'Reilly WILL certainly say something clearly stupid and/or racist. No need to jump the gun.
Sunday, October 05, 2008
In Play
I've known the Asheville area is Obama Country since I came here in May for my interview. It was the weekend before the N.C. primary, and Obama signs outnumbered Clinton by ridiculous margins. Since we moved, I think I can count the McCain signs AND bumper stickers I've seen in Asheville on one hand each. Seriously.
It was for that reason I never thought Obama would bother coming to Asheville—he's already got us—any time in N.C might be better spent in Greensboro or somewhere he can swing voters over.
Well, he came to Asheville today and it was huge. I'll post some pics and details shortly., but first I wanted to share some numbers with you... I just went online to double-check my voter registration and saw these numbers on the State site:
Voter Registration as of 10/05/2008
Democratic: 2,741,769
Republican: 1,961,524
Libertarian: 1,696
Unaffiliated: 1,335,415
Total: 6,040,404
Three quarters of a million more registered Democrats. That's fucking huge. This state will be turning blue.
Let me get to my Photoshop...
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Galloping to a Lead
I don't remember the numbers, but on the radio I heard Gallop had Obama opening up big leads in the "key" swing states...something along the lines of an 8-point lead in Ohio and Florida and 15 in PA. That's big news because they are key electoral states, but also areas he was supposed to struggle.
As evidenced by those swings, a lot can change in a short amount of time, but I see this looking increasingly difficult for McCain to stage a comeback on his own. He has damaged his own image severely over the last couple weeks, and I don't think Palin is going to do anything to help his cause...
As evidenced by those swings, a lot can change in a short amount of time, but I see this looking increasingly difficult for McCain to stage a comeback on his own. He has damaged his own image severely over the last couple weeks, and I don't think Palin is going to do anything to help his cause...
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
His Campaign Has Fallen And It Can't Get Up
And everyone seems happy to kick McCain when he's down...
Ezra:
Big Media Matt:
Dr. Josh
Benen:
Rep. Barney Frank:
Obama, FTW:
Ezra:
He's a kid pulling the fire alarm because final is coming up and he hasn't studied. Such a panicked response to declining poll numbers and major national events does not inspire confidence. You don't get to call time out when you're president.
Big Media Matt:
I think walking and chewing gum at the same time is part of the president’s job.
Dr. Josh
What's changed today in the financial crisis other than John McCain's poll numbers tanking? Isn't this the campaign equivalent of faking an injury when you're down late in the 4th quarter?
Benen:
McCain, who has played no direct role in the negotiations thus far, wants to swoop in and tell everyone what they need to do. This from a man who hasn't shown up for work at all in literally months.
Rep. Barney Frank:
"It's the longest Hail Mary pass in the history of either football or Marys."
Obama, FTW:
Obama, speaking to reporters in Florida, turned down McCain's offer to delay the debate. "Presidents are going to have to deal with more than one thing at a time," he said. "It's not necessary for us to think that we can do only one thing, and suspend everything else."
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