Tuesday, April 22, 2008

No Change You Can Believe In

Well, Hillary wins Pennsylvania, and the closest margin I've seen with 98% reporting is 52-46, with most putting it at 8 to 10 points.

It's a clear enough win that she can "claim" she's got the momentum, but that's a joke—Obama shaved 20 points off Clinton's 26-point advantage from six weeks ago. In her speech, Clinton claimed the "tide is turning." No, Hillary, it is still washing your ass out to sea, you've just managed to hang on to the pier a little longer...you're almost out of pilings, and you have no way to get back to shore.

It would have been nice for Obama to notch an upset here and break the back of Clinton's campaign, but alas we are where we were yesterday for at least a few more weeks. She made no significant gains in popular vote OR delegates (she looks to have picked up 10-12 delegates while she trails by 150+), so she just continues to stall the inevitable.

She needed a blowout, and she didn't get it. Another 158 delegates are off the table, and the lead remains insurmountable—in a sense, it's a "hold" for Obama.

UPDATE: John Cole puts it a bit more colorfully...
Hillary’s campaign now seems to boil down to her playing the role of Lucy, with little more than catcalls that Obama “can not close the deal.” “Sure,” she seems to say, “he has kicked my ass in every measurable metric this campaign, but why, oh why can he just not finish me off? Clearly that means you should make me the nominee.”

Regardless, Hillary’s vanity campaign will continue on, trailing in delegates, trailing in the popular vote, trailing in enthusiasm and money, but not lacking in the firm resolve that only Hillary can save us all from our selves. I can not tell you how much I am looking forward to more Clintonian triangulation and McCain worship and plans to nuke Iran over the next two weeks as we wait for the super-delegates and the voters of North Carolina and Indiana to break out the wreath of garlic and wooden stakes so we can finally be rid of this menace.

Pretty much.


Smitty said...

NOTE: Relocated from the Children Play thread...

-Mr F.

Mr. F, I know this is WAY off-topic...and it will really annoyingly clog your comments section, but I wanted to share this little bit about Obama supporters in MI getting screwed by the MI Dem Party. I'd provide a lnk to the article instead...but it's on an elitist password-protected web site. Enjoy:

Clinton Could Take Over 60% Of Delegates

If you voted "uncommitted" in the primary to support Barack OBAMA, your vote might have essentially gone to Hillary CLINTON anyway.

MIRS has learned some of the 36 uncommitted delegates chosen at Saturday's district conventions say they're staying uncommitted and not backing Obama. That seems curious, because there are only two candidates left in the race and those backing Clinton could have caucused for her.

Michigan Democratic Party (MDP) Chair Mark BREWER gave those exact instructions to those attending the 15 sites. But Obama supporters say they might not have been heeded to give Clinton even more than the 55 percent of delegates she won Jan. 15.

This could be a harbinger of what's to come. A MIRS analysis of superdelegates shows most favor Clinton (See "Advantage Clinton In MI Super Delegate Hunt," 3/19/08). The central committee will choose another 45 pledged delegates, and party elders are largely pro-Hillary. When all is said and done, Clinton likely will walk away with more than 60 percent of Michigan's pledged and superdelegates, perhaps more than 70 percent.

If the delegates are seated with full voting power, that is. Negotiations are still ongoing with the Democratic National Committee to see that they are, although it's not clear what the makeup would be. Obama has proposed splitting them 50-50, for instance. So there's a chance more chaos could ensue down the road, although MDP spokeswoman Liz KERR said they'll cross that bridge when it comes.

Clinton, by and large, had the establishment on Saturday. Gov. Jim BLANCHARD, who didn't attend the 9th District, but was elected a delegate, said the Clinton forces were well organized with an eye toward a contested convention.

"We wanted to pick people who would be loyal to Hillary, who would commit to her through multiple ballots," said Blanchard.

There was an upstart group, Michiganders for Obama, trying to organize but it was behind the curve since the candidate never campaigned here.

Some Obama supporters were especially suspicious on Saturday of the "unity slates" made up of members of the UAW, which hasn't endorsed a candidate. Attendees said there were shouting matches and massive confusion at the 9th District convention. Catherine MARTIN, a UAW member, was elected as an uncommitted delegate and plans to stay that way until the union endorses.

Rep. Aldo VAGNOZZI (D-Farmington Hills), who was elected an Obama delegate, points out Martin was elected by an "overwhelmingly Obama crowd."

Problem is, there's a perception that the UAW backs Clinton. Underscoring that point is the fact that Nadine NOSAL, legislative coordinator for the UAW, was elected in the 8th District as an alternate delegate supporting Clinton.

The UAW flatly denies it's pro-Clinton. Nosal said that the union put delegate candidates up in both caucuses because it's neutral. As for the Obama supporters' criticism, she said, "I don't perceive it to be what they're saying."

The Clinton campaign has been unusually quiet about the Michigan conventions. Clinton and national advisers have said that Obama's pledged delegates are fair game to flip, although they've backed away from statements afterward. Still, Clinton is making an aggressive behind-the-scenes push with superdelegates and to massage the nominating process to ensure she gets the nomination, even if she's behind in the delegate count, popular vote and states won.

The MDP hasn't released an official list of the 83 delegates and 15 alternates, yet. Kerr said it hasn't been policy to do so in past years until a few days of the national convention.

The remaining 45 of the 128 pledged delegates will be selected at the central committee meeting in May.

Derrick JOHNSON is an uncommitted delegate from the 15th District who supports Obama and also is head of the Washtenaw County Board of Elections. He said he's heard from Obama backers in other districts who were concerned they were outmaneuvered by Clinton supporters.

"If you're uncommitted, our message is that you shouldn't be uncommitted now. There are only two people left. If you support Clinton, there's a process for her delegates. Uncommitted should be for Obama," Johnson said. "It wasn't a problem in our district, but I think we had a different culture there than in some others."

Vagnozzi said there were four times as many Obama supporters than Clinton backers in the 9th, which seems to fit the statewide pattern. But the MDP doesn't have attendance numbers yet.

When asked if that was surprising, given the fact that Clinton won the primary, Vagnozzi said, "I think it shows the election wasn't an accurate reflection. Obama wasn't on the ballot. Clinton was."

He said the most important thing is for the delegation to be seated, because a Democrat will never win the White House without Florida and Michigan.

Vagnozzi acknowledges that scenario doesn't favor Obama.

"It might, but it's much more important to seat Michigan than any downside to it."

Nosal said it was her "hope and prayer" that the Democrats rally around the nominee whenever that's decided. "We need to come together. We need to elect a Democrat — I feel so strongly about that. Otherwise, we'll have four more years of what we've already had eight years of."

Mr Furious said...


Thanks for the scoop. Now that I have a more relevant thread, I moved it over here.

Aas far as the substance of this, I cannot even get worked up about this shit anymore. Michigan screwed the fucking pooch on this from jump.

Since it appears none of these delegates will be seated until this thing is settled anyway, I'm not sure any of this matters anyway.

I hope.